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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 89

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DET 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.67 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP