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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

CLE
24.2%
BAL
75.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.278 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.112 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CLE

David Bell WR Out Knee
Marquise Goodwin WR Out Concussion
Dawand Jones T Out Knee
Greg Newsome CB Questionable Groin
Pierre Strong RB Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Questionable Illness
Keaton Mitchell RB Questionable Hamstring
Morgan Moses T Questionable Shoulder
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 33
–
BAL 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:26 TD BAL (14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at CLE 18. 14-K.Hamilton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 10:22 TD BAL (10:22) 34-K.Mitchell left tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 13
  • Q1 07:31 FG CLE (7:31) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – BAL 14
  • Q1 03:33 FG BAL (3:33) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. CLE 3 – BAL 17
  • Q2 07:33 FG CLE (7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 6 – BAL 17
  • Q2 01:05 FG CLE (1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 9 – BAL 17
  • Q3 12:37 TD BAL (12:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 3-O.Beckham for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – BAL 23
  • Q3 02:25 TD CLE (2:25) 69-L.Watson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 15 – BAL 24
  • Q4 11:37 TD BAL (11:37) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – BAL 30
  • Q4 09:04 TD CLE (9:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – BAL 31
  • Q4 08:24 TD CLE (8:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 0-G.Newsome (54-O.Okoronkwo) at BAL 34. 0-G.Newsome for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 30 – BAL 31
  • Q4 00:03 FG CLE (:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 33 – BAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 21 for 4 yards (88-H.Bryant).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (7:31) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (3:33) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 40 for 8 yards (43-M.Diabate).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:53) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 16 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 65%

    (2:27) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Elliott), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout, RECOVERED by CLE-5-A.Walker at CLE 35. 5-A.Walker pushed ob at BAL 38 for 27 yards (11-J.Stout).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left (26-G.Stone, 14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (9:20) 88-H.Bryant up the middle to CLE 47 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:03) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.