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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Elliott), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout, RECOVERED by CLE-5-A.Walker at CLE 35. 5-A.Walker pushed ob at BAL 38 for 27 yards (11-J.Stout).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model