4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model