4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left (26-G.Stone, 14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP