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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 40 for 8 yards (43-M.Diabate).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model