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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model