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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Cleveland Browns 30

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model