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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model