4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

WAS
45.6%
NE
54.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Mac Jones (NE) -0.113 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.110 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
NE 22
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

WAS

Curtis Samuel WR Out Toe
Ricky Stromberg C Out Knee
Percy Butler S Questionable Calf

NE

Calvin Anderson T Out Illness
DeVante Parker WR Out Concussion
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Illness
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Hamstring
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Back
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Ankle
Tyquan Thornton WR Questionable Foot
Josh Uche LB Questionable Ankle
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
NE 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:18 FG WAS (3:18) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 12:10 TD WAS (12:10) 8-B.Robinson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – NE 0
  • Q2 09:31 TD NE (9:31) (No Huddle) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – NE 6
  • Q2 06:16 TD NE (6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – NE 13
  • Q3 10:17 FG NE (10:17) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. WAS 10 – NE 17
  • Q3 06:58 TD WAS (6:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – NE 17
  • Q3 01:52 FG WAS (1:52) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 20 – NE 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:30) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 58%

    (8:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Thornton.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (3:18) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to WAS 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 20 for 6 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to WAS 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 14 for -3 yards (30-M.Mapu).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%

    (6:48) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (10:17) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 24 for 14 yards (14-T.Montgomery; 41-B.Schooler).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (1:52) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 24%

    (14:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:21) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NE 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-D.Douglas to NE 5 for -2 yards (23-C.Rodriguez).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to WAS 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 34 for 14 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:22) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NE 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-D.Douglas to NE 21 for 3 yards (40-A.Armah). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Face Mask, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:15) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 11 yards (86-P.Brown; 30-M.Mapu). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 10.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:16) 5-T.Way punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback. PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 33%

    (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-J.Smith-Schuster to WAS 43 for 6 yards (13-E.Forbes).