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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 19

Washington Commanders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP