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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New England Patriots
4th & 3 at the 39
New England Patriots 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Thornton.
The Three Options
GO
+1.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.85 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK
+0.38 EP
- 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
- 42% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
+0.20 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
