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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 56

Washington Commanders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP