Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 64

Washington Commanders 20 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 5-T.Way punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback. PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.58 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model