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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 70

New England Patriots 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to WAS 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 20 for 6 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model