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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 59

New England Patriots 17 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 24 for 14 yards (14-T.Montgomery; 41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model