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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 11

Washington Commanders 17 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model