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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NYG
43.9%
LV
56.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NYG: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.145 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.118 EPA/dropback (LV starting Aidan O'Connell in place of Jimmy Garoppolo; NYG starting Daniel Jones in place of Tyrod Taylor)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
LV 22
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NYG

Graham Gano K Out left Knee
Tyrod Taylor QB Out Ribs
Darren Waller TE Out Hamstring
Jashaun Corbin RB Questionable Hamstring
Evan Neal T Questionable Ankle
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Hamstring

LV

Divine Deablo LB Out Ankle
Jakob Johnson FB Out Concussion
Luke Masterson LB Out Concussion
Thayer Munford T Out Neck
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 6
–
LV 30

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:50 TD LV (9:50) 16-J.Meyers left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 05:11 TD LV (5:11) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LV 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD LV (2:00) 71-J.Herron and 54-N.Muti reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LV 20
  • Q2 00:07 FG LV (:07) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYG 0 – LV 24
  • Q3 08:27 FG LV (8:27) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYG 0 – LV 27
  • Q4 14:17 TD NYG (14:17) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 17-W.Robinson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – LV 27
  • Q4 09:33 FG LV (9:33) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYG 6 – LV 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to LV 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at LV 33 for 6 yards (19-I.Simmons).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 74%

    (5:41) 8-D.Jones up the middle to LV 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:19) 6-A.Cole punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 29%

    (13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:28) 6-A.Cole punts 69 yards to NYG 3, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 20 for 17 yards (51-M.Koonce).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to LV 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 84%

    (8:27) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LV 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:14) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to NYG 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 16 for 2 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to LV 24 for 6 yards (25-T.Moehrig).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:44) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to NYG 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 14 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao, 80-J.Horsted).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Hodgins (21-A.Robertson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (9:33) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 74%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 31-M.Breida pushed ob at LV 28 for 6 yards (56-A.Burney).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:02) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short middle to 31-M.Breida.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%

    (:32) 35-Z.White up the middle to NYG 34 for no gain (45-C.Basham; 41-M.McFadden).