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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 75

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to LV 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at LV 33 for 6 yards (19-I.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model