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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model