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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to NYG 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 16 for 2 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model