Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – New York Giants 6

(12:44) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to NYG 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 14 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao, 80-J.Horsted).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model