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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model