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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 34

New York Giants 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 31-M.Breida pushed ob at LV 28 for 6 yards (56-A.Burney).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP