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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 6-A.Cole punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model