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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

JAX
44.9%
PIT
55.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • JAX on 3 more days rest than PIT
  • PIT defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.022 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.008 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

JAX

Zay Jones WR Out Knee
Gregory Junior CB Out Hamstring
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Hamstring
Andre Cisco S Questionable Hamstring
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Knee
Walker Little T Questionable Knee
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Ankle

PIT

James Pierre CB Questionable Ankle
Joey Porter CB Questionable Calf
Levi Wallace CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
PIT 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:51 FG JAX (10:51) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 05:59 FG JAX (5:59) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 04:01 FG PIT (4:01) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. JAX 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 01:07 FG JAX (1:07) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 9 – PIT 3
  • Q3 05:14 TD JAX (5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 15 – PIT 3
  • Q3 00:59 TD PIT (:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – PIT 9
  • Q4 04:38 FG JAX (4:38) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 20 – PIT 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:10) 6-P.Harvin punts 33 yards to JAX 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 77%

    (10:51) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 32 for 12 yards (13-M.Boykin).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 77%

    (5:59) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 37 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz; 51-Ni.Herbig).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (4:01) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (1:07) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:08) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 9 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 29 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 18 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 59%

    (10:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (4:38) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to PIT 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-A.Johnson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 56%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Johnson at JAX 6. 26-A.Johnson ran ob at JAX 29 for 23 yards.