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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP