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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model