Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

(2:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.05 EP
74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.65 EP