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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 9 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model