Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

(5:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 29 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.68 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model