4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 5

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model