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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 37 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz; 51-Ni.Herbig).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model