4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DET
59.3%
BAL
40.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.268 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • DET defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
BAL 19
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DET

Marvin Jones WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Jonah Jackson G Out Ankle
David Montgomery RB Out Ribs
Jerry Jacobs CB Questionable Knee
James Mitchell TE Questionable Hamstring
Josh Paschal DE Questionable Knee
Craig Reynolds RB Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Kevon Seymour CB Out Ankle
Marcus Williams S Out Hamstring
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 6
–
BAL 38

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 TD BAL (10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 03:22 TD BAL (3:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 13:00 TD BAL (13:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 20
  • Q2 07:49 TD BAL (7:49) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 27
  • Q3 07:29 TD BAL (7:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 34
  • Q4 14:05 TD DET (14:05) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – BAL 35
  • Q4 09:33 FG BAL (9:33) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. DET 6 – BAL 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:09) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay. PENALTY on DET-27-C.Lucas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 17.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:59) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to BAL 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:52) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to BAL 20, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 27%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 30 for 15 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (9:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Reynolds (0-R.Smith).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 59%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Williams INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL -3. Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:42) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to DET 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 8 yards (34-K.Mitchell; 88-C.Kolar).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (9:33) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 80-A.Green (21-B.Stephens).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:21) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to DET 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 42 for 24 yards (13-D.Duvernay). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 17%

    (2:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 47 for 6 yards (5-J.Armour-Davis).