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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model