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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 7
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Detroit Lions 0
What Actually Happened
(10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.77 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth +0.46 EP
KICK
+2.35 EP
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
