Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 62

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay. PENALTY on DET-27-C.Lucas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.40 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model