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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 53

Detroit Lions 6 – Baltimore Ravens 38

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 47 for 6 yards (5-J.Armour-Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model