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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 8 at the 48
Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 28
What Actually Happened
(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.
The Three Options
GO
-0.57 EP
What Happened
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.35 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.87 EP
KICK
-1.63 EP
- 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 73% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
Model's Pick
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
