Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 38 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to DET 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 42 for 24 yards (13-D.Duvernay). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model