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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 20

Detroit Lions 6 – Baltimore Ravens 38

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 80-A.Green (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP