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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ARI
35.5%
LA
64.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Joshua Dobbs (ARI): -0.079 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Jalen Thompson S Out Hamstring
Dennis Daley T Questionable Ankle
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Illness
Elijah Higgins TE Questionable Illness
Jonathan Ledbetter DE Questionable Finger
Jesse Luketa LB Questionable Shoulder
Myjai Sanders LB Questionable Thumb
Garrett Williams CB Questionable Knee
Josh Woods LB Questionable Ankle

LA

Ernest Jones LB Questionable Knee
Larrell Murchison DT Questionable Knee
Joseph Noteboom T Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 9
–
LA 26

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:30 FG ARI (11:30) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 00:15 FG LA (:15) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 12:38 FG ARI (12:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:46 FG ARI (:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 9 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:08 FG LA (:08) 8-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 9 – LA 6
  • Q3 09:01 TD LA (9:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – LA 12
  • Q3 02:47 FG LA (2:47) 8-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 9 – LA 16
  • Q4 08:24 TD LA (8:24) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end to ARI 1 for 4 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – LA 22
  • Q4 04:42 FG LA (4:42) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 9 – LA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (11:30) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%

    (9:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to ARI 7, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%

    (2:20) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell pushed ob at LA 41 for 29 yards (12-B.Gillikin).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (:15) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 16 for 1 yard (26-B.Price, 32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), touched at LA 16, RECOVERED by ARI-26-B.Price at LA 17.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (12:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:41) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 41 for 16 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 60%

    (7:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 2-M.Brown.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (:08) 8-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 32 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on LA-26-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (2:47) 8-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%

    (4:42) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 49 for 26 yards (14-C.Durant).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 86-Z.Ertz [56-C.Rozeboom].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 38%

    (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-M.Brown to ARI 38 for 9 yards (26-D.Shelley) [99-A.Donald].