Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 16 for 1 yard (26-B.Price, 32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), touched at LA 16, RECOVERED by ARI-26-B.Price at LA 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.58 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model