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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 5 at the 40
Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3
What Actually Happened
(7:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 2-M.Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+0.28 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
KICK
-0.10 EP
- 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
