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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(:08) 8-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.97 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model