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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 86-Z.Ertz [56-C.Rozeboom].

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model