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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model