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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.32 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP