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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model