4th & Data
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NE
31.6%
DAL
68.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.108 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.049 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NE

Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Tyron Smith T Out Knee
Tyler Biadasz C Questionable Hamstring
Peyton Hendershot TE Questionable Ankle
Zack Martin G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 3
–
DAL 38

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 FG DAL (10:54) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NE 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 06:44 FG NE (6:44) 37-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – DAL 3
  • Q1 01:34 TD DAL (1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – DAL 9
  • Q2 11:17 TD DAL (11:17) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler) [56-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. 55-L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – DAL 16
  • Q2 04:06 FG DAL (4:06) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NE 3 – DAL 21
  • Q2 01:07 TD DAL (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at DAL 46. 26-D.Bland for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – DAL 27
  • Q3 07:45 FG DAL (7:45) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NE 3 – DAL 31
  • Q4 06:41 TD DAL (6:41) (Shotgun) 40-H.Luepke right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – DAL 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (10:54) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (6:44) 37-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 58%

    (13:49) 10-M.Jones up the middle to DAL 41 for no gain (33-D.Clark; 55-L.Vander Esch).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:05) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NE 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-D.Douglas to NE 10 for -2 yards (18-J.Tolbert).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 22 for 1 yard (18-M.Slater).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (4:06) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to DAL 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 60%

    (11:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at DAL 38. 26-D.Bland to DAL 48 for 10 yards (7-J.Smith-Schuster).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (7:45) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to DAL 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 37 for 12 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NE-49-J.Cardona, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 37.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at NE 31 for -9 yards (91-D.Wise).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to DAL 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:37) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:06) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to DAL 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%

    (4:08) 37-C.Ryland 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.